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Trump to convince centrists that they won't be supporting evil or a wanna-be dictator if they vote Republican. A lot of centrists still want a viable non-Democrat option, and Biden isn't great at campaigning. He may be one of the few people with higher odds of getting in after an incumbent (since an incumbent can have a bad economy almost guarantee "the other guy" is going to win). So Inslee would be mostly likely to end up running against a Republican incumbent in 2028. Although I may be giving Republicans too much credit for owning their toxic sub-base issues and moving away from allying with unhealthy radicals in time for 2024. I think the election entirely comes down to how bad COVID is in November. 

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